Like many other interested observers, I followed the results of the U.S. presidential election in which Republican candidate Donald Trump won over his opponent, Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, after an electoral marathon that saw occasional clashes and exchanges. In the end, the American people made their choice, electing Donald Trump as the 47th president in U.S. history. I don’t typically write about events at their peak, as modern media is filled with analyses and expert opinions. It’s often better to wait until the initial contours of the event become clearer. It was notable that the pre-election opinion polls did not accurately reflect the voting landscape in the United States. Furthermore, some analyses, particularly from the Arab world, that focused on a simplistic view of who might be better for the region—Trump or Harris—seem reductive. The matter is not about individuals but rather about policies from a major power toward a region experiencing tensions for various reasons. U.S. policies are generally driven by the concepts of interest and values, regardless of who assumes office, Republican or Democrat. The balance between these two factors fluctuates depending on the ruling party, but this is the core equation.

On another note, successive U.S. administrations have established “red lines” that no party is allowed to cross. In the Arabian Gulf region, maintaining the regional power balance and energy security has consistently been a priority on every U.S. president’s agenda. This was evident when President Reagan established a maritime military coalition to protect Gulf oil tankers from attacks during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, followed by the coalition led by President George H.W. Bush involving 34 countries to liberate Kuwait from the Iraqi invasion in 1991, and later the maritime security coalition in the Arabian Gulf that President Trump announced in 2019, including six countries, three of which were Gulf states. More recently, President Biden announced the ‘Prosperity Guard’ coalition in 2023 to protect commercial vessels in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb from Houthi attacks, with several regional countries joining.

These alliances highlight the fact that the United States, under various administrations from both the Republican and Democratic parties, has led military coalitions aimed at maintaining the balance of power and securing energy as a strategic goal that concerns both producers and consumers alike. But are these alliances sufficient to evaluate U.S. policy toward the region or at least provide indicators on the future of that policy under Trump’s next term? I am not a proponent of drafting future scenarios, as even the policies of major nations are closely tied to their national interests, which also shift over time. However, one undeniable truth is that the security of the Arabian Gulf is intricately linked to regional security, a fact underscored by the security crises the region has witnessed. Although the Gulf states have consistently pursued a policy of neutrality, they have been part of these crises. Currently, the Gulf’s regional environment is experiencing unprecedented tension, necessitating a clearer U.S. policy along three tracks:

1. Pressuring rival factions in neighboring countries to build unified national states, especially in Yemen, as the continuation of conflict only drains these countries’ resources and increases the role of factions that pose a threat to global security, such as threats to maritime navigation.
2. Ensuring the continued U.S. role in maintaining the regional power balance, particularly as there have been statements suggesting that the new U.S. administration may reduce its involvement in the Middle East, which could open the door for competitors to establish a presence in the region, if not necessarily in opposition to the U.S. security role, but on an economic level.
3. Supporting the roles of regional organizations, including the Gulf Cooperation Council, which plays a significant role in maintaining the regional power balance.

Undoubtedly, the policies of major powers, including the United States, are closely tied to national security strategies. This implies that a new U.S. national security strategy is anticipated, one that will reflect the new administration’s vision of the world at large, including the Middle East and the Arabian Gulf. However, it is not sufficient to rely solely on the content of this strategy, as the global environment in which it operates is competitive, particularly in economic terms, along with the ongoing Ukrainian crisis, which profoundly impacts the security of the United States’ European allies. Furthermore, anti-Western economic blocs like BRICS are seeking to attract more countries, including some in the Arabian Gulf, into their membership. Regionally, the U.S. is expected to face challenges from the aftermath of the war in Gaza, in addition to continued threats to maritime navigation. This raises questions about the approach of the new U.S. administration to such issues, especially given the establishment of two coalitions to confront these threats—the first in 2019 and the second in 2023.

In my view, despite the United States already having strong security partnerships with Gulf countries, including security agreements since 1991 and the Comprehensive Security Integration and Prosperity Agreement signed with Bahrain in 2023, along with granting some Gulf countries the status of major non-NATO allies, the U.S. security policy towards the Arabian Gulf during President Trump’s era may require renewing these security partnerships. This is particularly relevant for enhancing the security capabilities of Gulf states, supporting efforts to localize military industries, and facilitating technology transfer. Additionally, operational cooperation is essential in joint training exercises to respond to maritime disasters amid increasing threats to maritime security. A strategic security dialogue between the two sides is undoubtedly crucial to identify risks, priorities, and cooperation mechanisms to address them, given the fact that maintaining the security of the Arabian Gulf is a strategic interest of the United States, especially in light of international competition in the Gulf region and the impact of regional instability on the traditional balance of power equation.

Note: This article has been automatically translated.

Source: Akhbar Al Khaleej