There has been much discussion about the “day after” in Gaza, but in reality, the repercussions of the war in Gaza will not be confined within its borders; rather, they will extend to the entire regional security system. As I have pointed out in several previous articles, regional security issues are closely interconnected. The war in Gaza did not create these issues but rather exposed them and their various dimensions. This means that, alongside discussions about the “day after” in Gaza, it is essential to address the “day after” for the regional security system itself.
Before the war in Gaza, the region was already facing multiple simultaneous challenges, including the collapse or weakening of neighboring states due to intense internal conflicts, the rise of non-state actors as key players in these conflicts—especially as they have successfully leveraged modern technology to enhance their influence—and ongoing debates about Iran’s nuclear programs and how Western countries are handling them.
The key question is: What will the regional security system look like after Gaza? I have previously highlighted some of the challenges and even the expectations from the new U.S. administration. However, the fast-changing nature of politics makes it difficult to establish definitive scenarios. Instead, this article focuses on opportunities and challenges.
In terms of opportunities, I believe this is a crucial moment for pivotal regional states that have played significant roles in addressing regional and international conflicts, such as Egypt and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. These states have contributed through mediation efforts and by hosting peace talks, including those related to the war in Ukraine. This underscores the critical role of regional actors in complementing international efforts.
Another opportunity lies in the security vision launched by the GCC in 2023, which presents a valuable chance for Gulf states to work collectively through the council on regional issues. A key example was the Gulf states’ stance on Syria. Additionally, developing a regional alternative to address maritime security threats remains a strategic necessity, given the vital interests of Red Sea littoral states in the region, including major developmental projects. The internationalization of Red Sea navigation poses a significant challenge to regional security.
Furthermore, there is an urgent need for regional initiatives to resolve ongoing conflicts. The increasing entanglement of local, regional, and international spheres has been a major obstacle to conflict resolution, prolonging these disputes. Strengthening the role of regional security organizations is also essential, given the politicization of regional conflicts in international organizations, where decisions are ultimately shaped by power dynamics within these entities.
Despite these opportunities, several challenges hinder the achievement of regional security—some of which are longstanding, while others are emerging. One major issue is the balance of power in the region. Historical experience suggests that while military power balance is important, it is not sufficient on its own. Alliances tend to lead to counter-alliances, reinforcing a military security approach at the expense of cooperative security. The latter requires cohesion and strength among regional security units, which the region has yet to achieve. However, there are promising signs, such as the rapprochement between Iran and some Gulf states, which could pave the way for a broader regional security framework, particularly in maritime security.
Another challenge is the renewed competition among global powers in the region. This is evident from Russia’s announcement of establishing a naval base in Sudan, Kuwait’s agreement with a Chinese company to develop Mubarak Al-Kabeer Port, and India’s efforts to address maritime security threats in the Bab el-Mandeb and Red Sea as part of its security partnership with regional states. These developments highlight the complexity of international competition in the region, which may present regional states with difficult strategic choices.
A third challenge is the impact of military technology on security concepts and dynamics. Recent advancements have changed the rules of the game, as seen in attacks on critical infrastructure in the Gulf. This raises multiple concerns, including how to hold perpetrators accountable and how Gulf states should develop their own technological capabilities to counter such threats.
Ultimately, while the “day after” in Gaza remains a key focus, it is equally crucial to discuss the future of the entire regional security system. Addressing security challenges requires both strengthening regional cooperation and balancing the interests of external powers to ensure a more stable and resilient security framework.
Note: This article has been automatically translated, the full article is available in Arabic.
Source: Akhbar Al Khaleej
Dr. Ashraf Keshk, Senior Research Fellow