On January 20, 2025, Donald Trump will be inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States. Although Trump has previously served as president, giving him comprehensive knowledge of regional security developments in the Middle East, the current regional landscape leaves researchers with little certainty about the constants and variables that will define Trump’s approach. In a previous article, I discussed the Gulf states’ expectations of President Trump. However, the current regional context unequivocally underscores the intricate linkage between the Gulf’s security and the broader regional framework. This is evident from the collective role Gulf states played in addressing the Syrian crisis, reflecting a unified vision for Syria’s political transition.

Scholars of international relations and U.S. foreign policy observers often interpret these policies through different lenses. Some argue that U.S. foreign policy is shaped by a blend of values and interests, with their emphasis varying depending on whether the administration is Republican or Democratic. Others believe U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East and the Gulf is primarily driven by vital interests such as maintaining the current balance of power, ensuring oil security, and safeguarding maritime navigation—red lines that, if crossed, provoke military alliances, such as the 1991 Gulf War coalition, the 2003 Iraq invasion, or U.S.-led maritime security initiatives in the 1980s and 2019, as well as the Prosperity Sentinel coalition in 2023.

A third perspective suggests that U.S. policy in the Middle East is inseparable from the global power dynamics, as rival powers seek to solidify their influence in regions of critical importance to the U.S. Thus, U.S. policies toward the Middle East may ebb and flow based on global competition for influence, whether in the Middle East or the South China Sea. While all three explanations hold merit, I believe regional developments will heavily shape U.S. policy trajectories, reaffirming the principle that regional security can influence global security.

Considering the dramatic shifts and continuities in U.S. policies toward the Middle East under successive administrations, it is prudent to await Trump’s State of the Union address and potentially a new National Security Strategy outlining U.S. priorities. Nonetheless, the debate around America’s role in regional security revolves around five key areas:

1. Challenges from Non-State Actors: These groups increasingly leverage modern technology in conflict zones. Traditional U.S. responses include designating them as terrorist organizations and implementing financial sanctions or forming military coalitions to combat them. While effective, these measures have not fully mitigated the threats.

2. Iran’s Nuclear Program: Trump’s “maximum pressure” policy during his first term included withdrawing from the nuclear deal, imposing unilateral economic sanctions, and targeting figures like Qassem Soleimani. The multidimensional nature of Iran’s nuclear issue ties into Europe’s negotiating role and Iran’s regional ambitions amid developments in Syria and Lebanon.

3. Maritime Security Threats: Continued threats to navigation in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea raise questions about the efficacy of maritime coalitions. Initiatives like the U.S.-led 2019 maritime coalition and the Prosperity Sentinel, which included Bahrain as a Gulf participant, have faced challenges despite strikes against Houthi forces.

4. U.S. Military Presence in Conflict Zones: Debates persist on whether to sustain or reduce American forces, especially given the increased use of modern technology to target U.S. troops in various regions.

5. U.S. Roles in Regional Conflicts: Key questions remain about whether the new U.S. administration has a strategy to resolve conflicts in Libya, Sudan, and Yemen using political, economic, and military tools to pressure the involved parties.

The evolving regional landscape will likely shape how these issues are addressed under Trump’s administration.

Note: This article has been automatically translated, the full article is available in Arabic.

Source: Akhbar Al Khaleej